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Spikosauropod Profile
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Parliamentarian

Registered: 06-2007
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China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way


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https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/01/14/china-is-losing-the-trade-war-in-nearly-every-way/#79d140187f03
1/17/2019, 3:36 am Link to this post PM Spikosauropod
 
spud100 Profile
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Registered: 12-2017
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Re: China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way


Good article Spiko. I am suspecting that given Forbes writers line of thinking, these guys are ever-globalists. Globalists, whether Gillette telling us all to girl-up, or be ashamed of having a dick, also, cater to Xi. Even the Donald is ok with naturalizing H1-B's, the Indian nationals that came here under Obama, because the Boards of Directors of big companies can contract these to work cheaper $$.

I will add, that by not importing so much from China, manufacturing, at least, has revived. Hence the job numbers are superb!
1/17/2019, 12:50 pm Link to this post PM spud100 Blog
 
greendocnowciv Profile
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Registered: 11-2017
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Re: China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way


Also, this invalidates the Tariff fear some have.

Old verities are now seen as lessons to learn from rather than commandments carved in stone.
1/17/2019, 3:22 pm Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 
luciddream00 Profile
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Registered: 04-2018
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Re: China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way


I'm sure China is feeling the effects of the trade war, and I wouldn't be surprised if it hurts them more than the US... but I can't help but keep coming back to the fact that the US has a democracy and China has essentially a dictatorship at this point and a dictatorship can hold out in adverse conditions a lot longer than a democracy. American leaders operate at the whim of the market, corporations and the people, whereas Xi controls the markets, corporations and people. Long term I absolutely believe that China would "lose" a trade war (and perhaps rightfully so given their less-than-good-faith participation in the world markets), but I'm skeptical that the consequences of the trade war will outweigh the potential benefits of simply holding out until the US has new leadership less willing to continue the trade war.

Last edited by luciddream00, 1/17/2019, 5:53 pm


---
Account closed permanently. I won't stand for abuse of authority by forum administration to censor criticism of a conservative radio host that celebrated the death of AIDS patients on his show. Maybe some day we'll speak again elsewhere.
1/17/2019, 5:53 pm Link to this post PM luciddream00 Blog
 
greendocnowciv Profile
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Registered: 11-2017
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Re: China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way


lucid,

"American leaders operate at the whim of the market, corporations and the people, whereas Xi controls the markets, corporations and people."

I believe you are still working with a pre-Trump mindset, as when you describe "non-dictator democratic leaders" flipping about like a flag in a haphazard breeze.

Some most certainly do! John Kerry was rightly showcased as that kind of guy:



Pres Trump has our elite class who dominate most of "...the market, corporations..."

Many of them have been guest on this or that show or quoted in articles expressing themselves in opposition to Pres Trump.

Others run corporations controlling most media, and most of it runs almost completely negative reports on the President.

Many of those elites who are used to running people like Kerry are in conniptions trying to stop Pres Trump from getting anything done in his first term. They appear to hope that by derailing anything good he tries to do might help keep him from getting re-elected.

Instead of being at the whim of all those pressures, he has simply followed old, tried and true ideas - and the "main street" economy is great as a result.

Our opponent, the dictator, is not a master chessplayer controllinng a game board.

Dictators have their own problems with managinig a given country. Comparing historical examples show that a given leader can make a huge difference in either one.

Mao was a disastrous leader in terms of prosperity, but great for consolidating a cult of personality - same same for Stalin, Kim, Castro and "Chavez of Venezuela."

Xi inherited a very successful economy that had its own flaws - now, some of those are showing.

We will certainly see how long he lets it crumble. He can, if he wishes, to do a "full Kim" and have it go way, way down hill.

If you really think that's Xi - you might be right!

Neither of us probably has the right "inside scoop" on Xi. I'm simply pointing out what you write that you see, too. The trend sucks for China. Xi can escape from that - if Pres Trump re-opens easy access to the market that China grew rich as a part of.

To show the world, especially the Asian neighbors he wants to intimidate, that his big opponent has beat him - OK, that probably would would be problematic in some ways.

In terms of public criticism in China, though, the almost total control that Xi has means that internally, it will be almost completely free of any criticism for him.

I cannot claim to have a ChiCom dictators mindset - I just cant imagine him holding out long past Pres Trumps re-election, and putting his country through another four years of what, by two years from now, may be quite a weirdly odd sight to see over there.

1/18/2019, 7:21 am Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 
luciddream00 Profile
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Registered: 04-2018
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Re: China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way


quote:

greendocnowciv wrote:

Neither of us probably has the right "inside scoop" on Xi. I'm simply pointing out what you write that you see, too. The trend sucks for China. Xi can escape from that - if Pres Trump re-opens easy access to the market that China grew rich as a part of.

To show the world, especially the Asian neighbors he wants to intimidate, that his big opponent has beat him - OK, that probably would would be problematic in some ways.

In terms of public criticism in China, though, the almost total control that Xi has means that internally, it will be almost completely free of any criticism for him.

I cannot claim to have a ChiCom dictators mindset - I just cant imagine him holding out long past Pres Trumps re-election, and putting his country through another four years of what, by two years from now, may be quite a weirdly odd sight to see over there.




Of course it depends on how bad it gets. China has all sorts of economic problems that are not directly related to the "trade war", but I'm sure it isn't helping. If I were going to put down a bet, I suppose I'd put money on China holding out until 2020 and hoping Trump loses his re-election. If Trump gets two terms and China's economic problems continue to worsen then I'd put money on them caving before the end of his second term.

---
Account closed permanently. I won't stand for abuse of authority by forum administration to censor criticism of a conservative radio host that celebrated the death of AIDS patients on his show. Maybe some day we'll speak again elsewhere.
1/18/2019, 8:25 am Link to this post PM luciddream00 Blog
 
greendocnowciv Profile
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Registered: 11-2017
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Re: China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way


The incredibly disastrous "cultural revolution" showed that the ChiComs can hold on with much worse than even a total economic meltdown.

Them being able to hold on is not in any way in question.

The only question is - how much economic setback do they wish to allow to keep worsening, as a price Xi is willing to pay to maintain two impressions, and one broad, current condition.

The impressions: One is that China is some sort of roughly equivalent kind of counterweight to the US.

And: A regional impression that even under great economic duress, China refused to "bend."

The broad policy: The racket they've been runnig on us and all other countries ever since we let them in the WTO.

They blatantly steal much data from us and other countries, and impose barriers to our and other countries trading there - both big violations of WTO rules. As well as to trading rules and some laws in all of our countries.

This has been written about for years. Nobody has done anything about it - until now.

They would love to "deal" somewhat and leave as much after the deal just as it is right now.

The state of their economy as it's main source of revenue is now much reduced keeps slipping in deeper and deeper economic trouble. It has to! We are most of its' income source.

Most of the rest of the world is starting to pick up, along with the still growing US economy. The ones around China are slipping, as they have come to focus on China as a customer.

They can re-jigger. China? The whole rest of the world is carved up. Where are they supposed to go that's new? Nowhere. So that missing big chunk of their GDP is gonna not just stay missing - it's gonna grow!

Let's lighten this sad tale of far-east woe, with some light-hearted far-east news:





Last edited by greendocnowciv, 6/10/2019, 6:17 pm
6/10/2019, 5:08 pm Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 
RedQ Profile
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Registered: 11-2017
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Re: China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way


China wants to dominate the world. Basic to their plan is steal everything it can from the U.S. including IP and military secrets.

Trump has two choices, both good: 1) China stops the stealing from America; or 2) China loses a trading partner that has made it rich. Win-win for America, and OK-lose for China.

The Dems can't see it because they view everything thru the lense of their calculation of how to seize power.

China's economic power is near slave labor. The U.S. can find plenty of places with cheap labor or, with tariffs, bring the jobs home. The magic of tariffs when your a major importer: revenues to the government and more domestic production, mean jobs and domestic profits.

Would you prefer a trade war or a war-war?

Stick that up your nose.

Last edited by RedQ, 6/10/2019, 5:46 pm
6/10/2019, 5:34 pm Link to this post PM RedQ Blog
 
spud100 Profile
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Registered: 12-2017
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Re: China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way


America is not a democracy, it's a plutocracy.

China has armed itself with hypersonic 1st strike missiles in order to destroy the USA without fear of a successful US retaliation. Thus, as Redq noted, China has long been focused on destroying their biggest customer, the USA.

Not a good marketing prospectus, but the Communist Party is obviously not primarily focused on money, but seeks the world. A world without the USA.

China, like Putin, requires a great external enemy to hold their societies together, otherwise, domestic critics will seize power from the poor quality governance.
6/10/2019, 6:05 pm Link to this post PM spud100 Blog
 
greendocnowciv Profile
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Registered: 11-2017
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Re: China Is Losing The Trade War In Nearly Every Way


That last one doesnt compel them to do anything - internal propaganda does that for them.

And yes - a hard - edged policy with these schmucks is right on-point.

Thats why I like this non-binding bill that President Trump signed:

"In a statement after Trump’s signing of the bill, the Chinese embassy said clauses of the legislation “severely violate the one-China principle, the political foundation of the China-U.S. relationship”.

“China is strongly dissatisfied with that and firmly opposes it,” the statement said, adding that the United States should “stop pursuing any official ties with Taiwan or improving its current relations with Taiwan in any substantive way.”

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry expressed its thanks for the “friendly move” by the Trump administration, saying the government would continue to deepen its cooperation and partnership with the United States at all levels."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/17/trump-signs-u-s-taiwan-travel-bill-angering-china.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~

It pisses them off royally, because they've tried for years to bully and psychologically push Taiwan into more and more acting as though they're not independent, and actually a province of China.

Nixon, with Kissingers' guidance, tossed Taiwans' international status to the Chinese like a simple poker chip. We kept responsibility to sell them arms, to deal with them commercially, and have informal Gov contacts.

They drifted more and more into Chinas' influence in recent years, until most recently a more overtly pro-US, pro-slightly more openly-independent acting leadership was elected.

This PO's China somethin' fierce. Well played, Sir! See - per the article - this bill was going into effect regardless of his signature. Signing it and doing so publicly put it "in their face."

Hah!

And some straightforward, China-US Trade War news:



6/10/2019, 6:43 pm Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 


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