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luciddream00 Profile
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Re: Taking the Red Pill and Walking Away


quote:

Noting these videos are evidence of a growing "walk away" movement is not the use of anecdotal evidence in making that point.

When you or I dictate our reasons for following action "x," and document it with a video, we are offering durable public testimony.


That durable public testimony is still an anecdote. Each is only one data point, and you cannot draw conclusions from such "evidence". There are plenty of types of valid statistical evidence that may (or may not) support the position that Democrats are "walking away", but "durable public testimony" signal boosted to "conservo" sites is nothing but manipulative clickbait.

"Conservo" sites create virality by pushing their narrative with a handful of examples that are supposed to make it seem like a larger movement. Liberal sites do the same. Republicans, just like Democrats, love to hear when people leave the other side.


Last edited by luciddream00, 7/7/2018, 5:46 pm
7/7/2018, 5:40 pm Link to this post PM luciddream00 Blog
 
greendocnowciv Profile
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Re: Taking the Red Pill and Walking Away


Uh, what I said was that (a) if I put on video that I am leaving the Dems because (b) its too PC,

That is testimonial evidence. An anecdote is unsupported evidence.

Personal, documented life stories are metricized in this case by (C) counting them and (d) categorizing the reasons as specifically this or that, with each this or that also counted.

Such metrics based on verified, documented interviews are the basis of much epidemiology, as I know intimately as an experienced past epidemiology tech for 20 years.

Social science uses metricized interview data very expensively as well.

You are simply wrong here, my friend. Not a fool; an honest mistake, I am sure.
7/7/2018, 9:31 pm Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 
luciddream00 Profile
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Re: Taking the Red Pill and Walking Away


If you don't like the term anecdote, call it whatever you want. It doesn't change the fact that a handful of people's personal opinions do not make for compelling evidence of anything other than those people's personal opinions. In the internet age it is trivial to find anything you're looking for, and it is trivial to signal boost outliers and make them appear to be representative of a larger group. I could go find a dozen examples of Republicans renouncing their party, but it proves nothing except the convenience of google.

quote:


Personal, documented life stories are metricized in this case by (C) counting them and (d) categorizing the reasons as specifically this or that, with each this or that also counted.



Ok, count them and then compare them to the people that aren't leaving the Democrat party. Until you do so, you're still relying on cherry picked personal opinions. I'll wait.

Last edited by luciddream00, 7/7/2018, 9:40 pm
7/7/2018, 9:36 pm Link to this post PM luciddream00 Blog
 
greendocnowciv Profile
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Re: Taking the Red Pill and Walking Away


lucid,

Do I understand that you take the point of the WaPo writer I quoted, that "virality" aint a thing?

OK!

If so, then this growing trend is not viral.

Disregard, Sir!

And may all Dems follow that lead! Heh heh.
7/7/2018, 10:12 pm Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 
luciddream00 Profile
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Re: Taking the Red Pill and Walking Away


quote:

greendocnowciv wrote:
Do I understand that you take the point of the WaPo writer I quoted, that "virality" aint a thing?


Virality is a thing, but just because a video goes viral doesn't mean that it is representative of a larger group. A video of a Democrat renouncing the Democrat party means as much as a video of a Republican renouncing the Republican party. They are individual data points, and nowhere near a large enough sample size to make any conclusions.

quote:

greendocnowciv wrote:
If so, then this growing trend is not viral.


You have it backwards. I'm not arguing about whether or not it is viral. Viral just means popular. I'm arguing that viral videos are not, alone, compelling evidence of a growing trend.

Note: I'm not saying that Democrats are or are not actually "walking away". That cannot be determined from a handful of youtube videos. What I am saying is that it is trivially easy to manipulate people into believing that outliers are representative of a larger group because of the signal boosting of our various forms of media.

Last edited by luciddream00, 7/7/2018, 10:33 pm
7/7/2018, 10:23 pm Link to this post PM luciddream00 Blog
 
RedQ Profile
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Re: Taking the Red Pill and Walking Away


The #walkaway movement is real, but we can't say how big it is. Maybe after November.

But Lucid, Doc is right. These videos are evidence for a case. They are in no way 'anecdotal'. If I say my neighbor walked away (which he never will) that's anecdotal. Just hearsay compared to actual testimony.

These two videos represent the real thing.

Last edited by RedQ, 7/7/2018, 11:22 pm
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luciddream00 Profile
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Re: Taking the Red Pill and Walking Away


quote:

But Lucid, Doc is right. These videos are evidence for a case. They are in no way 'anecdotal'. If I say my neighbor walked away (which he never will) that's anecdotal. Just hearsay compared to actual testimony.



I'm not going to get into an argument over semantics. They are evidence in as much as any single data point is evidence. Whether or not they are an outlier is impossible to determine at this point.

I believe the biggest contribution to our country's intense, irrational tribalism is this kind of signal boosting of outliers. Both sides have friendly media that essentially crowd-sources examples of anything that makes the other side look bad. Cell phones, social media, everything is recorded and spread. 100 years ago you'd hear about the important events in your city or town and eventually you'd hear about really important events across the country. Now, we hear about every single event that occurs anywhere in the country as long as it fits neatly into someone's narrative. Confirmation bias takes over from there.

Edit:
Doc: Let me give you an example that I think will clarify my point in a way that you would actually agree with:

There are roughly 1 million cops in America. Of those, the vast majority are good people just doing a job that they believe in. I'm sure the people in charge do the best they can to train capable, impartial police officers, but when you're talking about a group of 1 million people, there are going to be a few bad apples that slip through the cracks. Now, enter the age of smartphones, where those bad apples interact with dozens or hundreds of people a day, who all almost certainly carry around a camera that can also upload video to the internet. Given enough time, eventually someone will catch a bad cop in the act. When that happens, social media signal boosts the event to the point that it gets national attention, and all of a sudden an outlier has become part of a narrative about abusive cops.

Last edited by luciddream00, 7/7/2018, 11:59 pm
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greendocnowciv Profile
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Re: Taking the Red Pill and Walking Away


No offense meant to you with this, lucid - I blame linguistic guru Noam Chomsky for that phrase "we are just arguing over semantics."
7/8/2018, 12:07 am Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 
greendocnowciv Profile
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Re: Taking the Red Pill and Walking Away


lucid,

With the cops/cell phones example, you are comparing two separate things. Unsubstantiated rumors and actual recorded testimonials.

Yes, unsubstantiated rumors can be backed up by lies, which in one case merit the nickname "hoax hate."

This refers to the large number of faked hate-crime reports.

"Evidence" is supplied, but it is not valid testimonials about how someone feels.
7/8/2018, 12:11 am Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 
luciddream00 Profile
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Re: Taking the Red Pill and Walking Away


quote:

greendocnowciv wrote:

No offense meant to you with this, lucid - I blame linguistic guru Noam Chomsky for that phrase "we are just arguing over semantics."



Nope. I don't play semantic games. You'll notice I avoided the word anecdote in my last post. I'm more than willing to rephrase my argument if it avoids pointless semantic pissing contests.
7/8/2018, 12:13 am Link to this post PM luciddream00 Blog
 


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