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James Jaeger Profile
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QUANTUM COMPUTERS - Can They Predict Political Events?


Quantum computers are becoming more real every day.

Theoretically quantum computers should be able to look into the "future" in the same way powerful Turing machines have been able to predict chess moves.

Politics is rules-based so theoretically it should be possible to predict political moves similar to chess moves, which are also rules-based.

If this is true, I see no reason a Quantum computer with sufficient Qbits (more than 150) would not be able to predict future political events. Since we only have about 52-Qbit machines at this time, I am doubtful that anyone is looking into future-politics as claimed by certain groups posting around the Internet.

But again, if there are secret machines that the general public does not know about and these machines have in excess of 150 Qbits, it MAY be possible that future political events can be predicted as moves in a type of "war game."

Last edited by James Jaeger, 1/15/2021, 10:43 am
1/14/2021, 3:21 pm Link to this post PM James Jaeger Blog
 
spud100 Profile
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Re: QUANTUM COMPUTERS - Can They Predict Political Events?


My only caveat to QC is that they are slower in arrival then I wanted. Also, keep in mind that not all entanglements lead to successful operations. 1 or 0, off or on, Y or N? Dwave is famous for claiming that they produce thousands of qubits, but most of these yield zero data.

From 4 years ago-
https://www.theverge.com/2016/9/28/13057414/quantum-computer-d-wave-2000-qubit-chip

Still it does produce a workable product, but not a miracle machine one would think they have by their claims. IBM is also doing the same bragging with somewhat better results-

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/ibm-promises-1000-qubit-quantum-computer-milestone-2023

In reality, just 65 successful qubits, on average.
1/14/2021, 4:12 pm Link to this post PM spud100 Blog
 
luciddream00 Profile
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Re: QUANTUM COMPUTERS - Can They Predict Political Events?


James, I think you're putting the cart way ahead of the horse. Even theoretically, there is nothing to suggest that quantum computers would let you see the "future" or be applicable to any "rules-based" problem. Quantum computers can solve certain problems much better than classical computers, but computer scientists are still trying to figure out how to make that useful, let alone predict the future.

---
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1/15/2021, 2:24 am Link to this post PM luciddream00 Blog
 
James Jaeger Profile
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Re: QUANTUM COMPUTERS - Can They Predict Political Events?


I understand what you are saying Lucid and I am not saying that QC will act in any way like a Turing machine, i.e., they may be totally horrible at playing chess.

>Even theoretically, there is nothing to suggest that quantum computers would let you see the "future" or be applicable to any "rules-based" problem.

But if they can do more than "just' massively simultaneously process data, they may be able to extrapolate rules-based problems, hence "see" into the future.

>Quantum computers can solve certain problems much better than classical computers, but computer scientists are still trying to figure out how to make that useful, let alone predict the future.

Seeing the future is technically quite possible and quite simple actually. When Deep Blue beat Kasparov it did so by simply extrapolating all possible chess moves and selecting moves that led to a desired outcome -- to win, as Trump might say.

Extrapolation on a chess board is quite easy as there are only as many rules as there are types of pieces and that number is 6. So in essence there are only 6 rules for the game of chess. Now, given there are 16 pieces, these 6 rules applied to the 16 pieces give the illusion that there are endless possibilities (6 ^ 16) -- and there are endless "moves" -- but the endless "moves" are all governed by only 6 rules, the rules that dictate how each individual piece can move.

Given this, a Truing machine must sequentially "look at" every move and the resultant moves caused by that move. This is "labor intensive" for a Turing computer. But for a Quantum computer that can "look at" (simultaneously process) every move, and its chain of consequences, virtually instantly -- this opens the door to much quicker prediction. If QUICKER prediction can be accomplished, MORE COMPLEX prediction can be accomplished.

So replace the 16 chess pieces with the 100 members of the U.S. Senate. And enter in the rules these "pieces" must follow (i.e., the "law"). Sure the number of possibilities increases yet more exponentially -- but this is WHY you need a Quantum computer to predict the actions of congress or any rules-based political system.

I would say it is wrong to ASSUME Quantum machines cannot, or will not, be able to predict the future of any rules-based system -- especially political games where we not only have the current rules, but all of rules acted upon throughout history. This is why history keep repeating itself: Humans keep playing by the same written and UNWRITTEN rules and yet don't learn enough about what really worked because their memories are not large enough and their computational abilities (CPUs) are limited.



Last edited by James Jaeger, 1/15/2021, 11:21 am
1/15/2021, 10:44 am Link to this post PM James Jaeger Blog
 
luciddream00 Profile
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Re: QUANTUM COMPUTERS - Can They Predict Political Events?


quote:

James Jaeger wrote:

But if they can do more than "just' massively simultaneously process data, they may be able to extrapolate rules-based problems, hence "see" into the future.



No, there is nothing to suggest this yet. I'm curious where you heard this.

>Quantum computers can solve certain problems much better than classical computers, but computer scientists are still trying to figure out how to make that useful, let alone predict the future.

Seeing the future is technically quite possible and quite simple actually. When Deep Blue beat Kasparov it did so by simply extrapolating all possible chess moves and selecting moves that led to a desired outcome -- to win, as Trump might say.

quote:

James Jaeger wrote:

Extrapolation on a chess board is quite easy as there are only as many rules as there are types of pieces and that number is 6. So in essence there are only 6 rules for the game of chess. Now, given there are 16 pieces, these 6 rules applied to the 16 pieces give the illusion that there are endless possibilities (6 ^ 16) -- and there are endless "moves" -- but the endless "moves" are all governed by only 6 rules, the rules that dictate how each individual piece can move.

Given this, a Truing machine must sequentially "look at" every move and the resultant moves caused by that move. This is "labor intensive" for a Turing computer. But for a Quantum computer that can "look at" (simultaneously process) every move, and its chain of consequences, virtually instantly -- this opens the door to much quicker prediction. If QUICKER prediction can be accomplished, MORE COMPLEX prediction can be accomplished.

So replace the 16 chess pieces with the 100 members of the U.S. Senate. And enter in the rules these "pieces" must follow (i.e., the "law"). Sure the number of possibilities increases yet more exponentially -- but this is WHY you need a Quantum computer to predict the actions of congress or any rules-based political system.

I would say it is wrong to ASSUME Quantum machines cannot, or will not, be able to predict the future of any rules-based system -- especially political games where we not only have the current rules, but all of rules acted upon throughout history. This is why history keep repeating itself: Humans keep playing by the same written and UNWRITTEN rules and yet don't learn enough about what really worked because their memories are not large enough and their computational abilities (CPUs) are limited.




Chess playing computers do not try every combination, because even with 6 pieces and 64 spaces you end up with an incalculable number of possible options. They must use heuristics and complicated algorithms to identify the best target moves at each step of the process. Quantum computers do not necessarily short circuit this process, because while they can do what would be considered massively parallel operations in classical systems, those massively parallel operations are *incredibly limited* in their applications. There are *very few* problems that are compatible with the current abilities of quantum systems. They might be able to solve a factoring problem faster than every computer on the planet, but that factoring problem may not be applicable to much else.

To put it simply, saying that quantum computers "may" be able to predict the future is like saying quantum computers "may" be able to figure out immortality or figure out how to turn lead into gold. Sure, it's possible because the technology is so nascent, but there is nothing to suggest yet that we'll see those kinds of benefits from QCs.

Last edited by luciddream00, 1/15/2021, 2:22 pm


---
Account closed permanently. I won't stand for abuse of authority by forum administration to censor criticism of a conservative radio host that celebrated the death of AIDS patients on his show. Maybe some day we'll speak again elsewhere.
1/15/2021, 2:02 pm Link to this post PM luciddream00 Blog
 
James Jaeger Profile
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Re: QUANTUM COMPUTERS - Can They Predict Political Events?


>No, there is nothing to suggest this yet. I'm curious where you heard this.

Divine inspiration...



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1/15/2021, 4:11 pm Link to this post PM James Jaeger Blog
 
James Jaeger Profile
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Re: QUANTUM COMPUTERS - Can They Predict Political Events?


Does anyone have any more thoughts on the ultimate capabilities of quantum computers?

Is it possible the state of the art is much farther along than we generally realize or are led to believe?

 
 
1/21/2021, 2:54 pm Link to this post PM James Jaeger Blog
 
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Re: QUANTUM COMPUTERS - Can They Predict Political Events?


quote:

James Jaeger wrote:

Does anyone have any more thoughts on the ultimate capabilities of quantum computers?


The honest answer is that we don't know yet. The good news is, we're pretty close to the point where folks can access quantum computers through the cloud, and it is only a matter of time before folks figure out more effective uses of quantum computing.

quote:

Is it possible the state of the art is much farther along than we generally realize or are led to believe?


Well let me put it this way... remember awhile back when the military just gave NASA several Hubble quality telescopes that they had laying around in space with the only caveat that they don't spy on earth with it? Even if quantum computers are only useful for cryptography, then I guarantee that the government and military are probably far ahead of everyone else.

---
Account closed permanently. I won't stand for abuse of authority by forum administration to censor criticism of a conservative radio host that celebrated the death of AIDS patients on his show. Maybe some day we'll speak again elsewhere.
1/22/2021, 7:33 pm Link to this post PM luciddream00 Blog
 
James Jaeger Profile
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Re: QUANTUM COMPUTERS - Can They Predict Political Events?


>point where folks can access quantum computers through the cloud,

I hate the cloud. The cloud is central planning brought into the universe of information technology. The when secret, cloud is nothing less than a high-tech version of Stalin's management system.

Central planning violates the number one law of Nature - the Law of Redundancy.

What right does the state have in keeping tax-payer assets, like cloud computing, secret from the citizens?

Keeping secrets from the Citizens is a serious security risk.


Last edited by James Jaeger, 1/23/2021, 6:13 pm
1/23/2021, 6:05 pm Link to this post PM James Jaeger Blog
 
RedQ Profile
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Re: QUANTUM COMPUTERS - Can They Predict Political Events?


quote:

Is it possible the state of the art is much farther along than we generally realize or are led to believe?



Duh!

I believe this has been called project looking glass. Is it 'seeing' the future, or just making a very good prediction?

The former would be revolutionary and very scary, the latter would be helpful.

I think it could be the former. For instance, Q posts seem to have predicted the future two years in advance. As Q always said "Future proves past".
1/24/2021, 7:26 am Link to this post PM RedQ Blog
 


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