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Ray Kurzweil: Universal Basic Income by 2030s


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Spikosaur, of the Uncircumcised Umbrella, Prophet to The Collectors, OA, RMC

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4/15/2018, 1:50 pm Link to this post PM Spikosauropod
 
spud100 Profile
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Re: Ray Kurzweil: Universal Basic Income by 2030s


So what are the triggers for UBI?
Does it just drop from the sky?
Who manages this new path?
Who decides your wages?
What if there is not enough given out?
4/15/2018, 10:13 pm Link to this post PM spud100 Blog
 
greendocnowciv Profile
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Re: Ray Kurzweil: Universal Basic Income by 2030s


Spud,

All good, solid questions. Those and many more are valid in questioning this prediction.

Now, a looser look at 2030 in "Rays timeline mind."

As I try to see it in that perspective, I can see how it could get here.

In his timeline, a year before that we have those nanobots in our bloodstream he predicts. Those, along with advances in bioscience are supposed to give us LE Bridge Two.

Meaning that we get two days more of lifespan for every day that passes.

Thus, we go from here to 2029, and get to that stage of nanobots. We thus will be very advanced in that tech, and undoubtedly other tech.

He is predicting that what we call a satisfactory income today will be doable, by whatever political structure we are using then, and by the transfer means we use then.

Personally, I believe countries and money will still exist.

But enough flexibility in all else means that one can create a scenario where we can meet some kind of materially satisfactory life for all Americans.

Now add Cybertech to that. By then, I think cybertech will be far enough that we will have e-lives that are reasonably, probably very fulfilling for most of us.

Fullfilling at material lifestyle levels lower than our advanced country middle class uses today.

Thats one possibility.
4/16/2018, 4:15 pm Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 
spud100 Profile
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Re: Ray Kurzweil: Universal Basic Income by 2030s


You could be correct, Doc, but I look at it this way--No techie--No UBI

No laser energy systems? no UBI
No super-duper resource mining no UBI
No space mining (lunar) no UBI
No advanced medical treatments-no UBI
No biological resource production-No UBI

I can throw in:
QC, AI, and Walking Talking Robots everywhere, but these may nit be immediately needed as a criteria. We an also mix and substitute these three, for almost any of the Above, save laser energy.
4/16/2018, 5:14 pm Link to this post PM spud100 Blog
 
luciddream00 Profile
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Re: Ray Kurzweil: Universal Basic Income by 2030s


I think the trigger for UBI is the next time there is a severe, sustained depression/recession. People are too complacent to demand real change right now. If things get bad enough for regular working people then populist candidates promising UBI by increasing the tax on the rich and corporations will win. I suspect that within our lifetime we'll have an election where the candidates are arguing about the type of UBI they would like to implement.
4/16/2018, 10:57 pm Link to this post PM luciddream00 Blog
 
greendocnowciv Profile
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Re: Ray Kurzweil: Universal Basic Income by 2030s


"...a severe, sustained depression/recession."

Good news.

During the recession that turned into the Great Depression, unemployment had improved to single digits by the time FDR finally, after lots of negotiating, got his first New Deal laws passed.

As the Progressive takeover of industry in the name of talented Ivy-leaguers deciding who does what, and where galloped along - unemployment started tracking up again and within a little over a year hit the twenties.

The Fed had been created before that for two main reasons. To reduce the number of recessions, and the severity of any of them.

Oddly, we had more of them, and they were more severe, after we made the wonnerful Fed.

Our last big recession was the housing boom/bust. That was a short, sharp recession lasting one year.

We were in recovery a year after it started.

We know better than to do an idiotic almost one trillion dollar stimulus - no, porkulous bill such as Ex Pres Obama did in his first two years.

We will come through any such. Unless the US disarms unilaterally enough to encourage aggressive dictators here and there to start big wars, it should hold on as it has for a while now - fairly small, regional wars only.

So we should be OK.

4/17/2018, 1:34 am Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 
Extropia DaSilva Profile
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Re: Ray Kurzweil: Universal Basic Income by 2030s


I am a bit surprised that Kurzweil has said UBI is needed. I would have thought that the technological capabilities he foresees would allow for alternatives. With nanobots making us super-smart, atomically-precise manufacturing making material wealth really cheap and the digitisation of everything allowing for more recombination than ever and therefore more wealth-creating opportunities, I would have thought it would be not be much of a problem for anyone to earn a living.

I guess if even Kurzweil acknowledges the necessity of UBI it must be an essential part of the future.
4/17/2018, 2:42 am Link to this post PM Extropia DaSilva Blog
 
greendocnowciv Profile
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Re: Ray Kurzweil: Universal Basic Income by 2030s


Extro,

Its so hard to prognosticate for us, and we have no such rep to keep us as Ray does.

He knows as we do the political realities of national budgeting we read about and discuss.

So the advances, if we still us money as we do, should mean as he describes it, that a UBI will be affordable that is satisfactory.

That is so ripe for so many different possibilities! And to be vague is to have many defenses from criticisms of being wrong, and also has the virtue of being honest if thats all you can figure out.

And he never claimed to be figuring out more than his tech timeline, and then guessing on whats gonna be doable based on what he knows of current and past tech, and what he knows of whats being planned.

Your money discussions have pointed out what I agree with - that money of some kind might last a long time.

I agree, as I see it as a useful way for both AI to keep track of resource use, but also one they might want to keep in use as one that people have a long history now of understanding.
4/17/2018, 10:28 pm Link to this post PM greendocnowciv Blog
 


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