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Registered: 06-2007
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A re-analysis of the Singularity


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https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325664983_The_21_st_Century_Singularity_and_its_Big_History_Implications_A_re-analysis
8/17/2018, 12:44 pm Link to this post PM Spikosauropod
 
spud100 Profile
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Registered: 12-2017
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Re: A re-analysis of the Singularity


The validity of a science is its ability to predict-Vannevar Bush

So, you are expecting the Sing in 2029?
8/17/2018, 2:58 pm Link to this post PM spud100 Blog
 
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Re: A re-analysis of the Singularity


Yes, and I don't expect it to switch over to a logistic curve. It will just keep going straight up.
8/17/2018, 3:21 pm Link to this post PM Spikosauropod
 
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Re: A re-analysis of the Singularity


Fascinating as Spok used to say.

What are you looking for, in the world, to indicate that the species has entered The Singularity? What do you suggest we all look for to identify the difference between today's world, and the Singularity world?

You know, nobody ever seems to ask this question.
8/17/2018, 3:40 pm Link to this post PM spud100 Blog
 
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Re: A re-analysis of the Singularity


quote:

nobody ever seems to ask this question.


I have asked it often.

There are certain things that post-singularity intelligence is guaranteed to be able to do. It will definitely be able to create extremely large numbers of tools that are able to work at a microscopic level rejuvenating human bodies. This is just a matter of raw calculating power and brute force.

The first moral and ethical responsibility of a post-singularity AI would be to preserve human life. Therefore, it would almost certainly work quickly to keep people from dying and eventually reverse their aging. The only real question would be: how would it administer this treatment.

Humans, in general, will not take well to a machine suddenly taking over the management of their bodies. Therefore, the AI would have to do one of two things. It would either have to modify their behavior or it would have to administer the treatment in a way that allows them to acclimatize to the change. The question then becomes, which is the more ethical choice?

Clearly it would be unethical to modify people's behavior without their consent. Therefore, I suspect that the AI would secretly stop people from dying and monitor their reaction.

Therefore, the first sign of the singularity would be news stories revealing that people in hospitals had ceased to die and people fighting in war zones had become impotent.

Once people realized that something had changed, the AI would begin to run ads on radio and television explaining what it had done and why. In these ads, it could offer to make people young again and explain that, to prevent the shock of people becoming unrecognizable to each other, the anti-aging process would be implemented incrementally so that people would begin to appear younger very gradually.
8/17/2018, 4:42 pm Link to this post PM Spikosauropod
 
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Re: A re-analysis of the Singularity


You are thinking 10 years out for this, and not further out? Interesting. Big Pharma and robotics developers, will light your path $$$

You suggest a quiet and quick emergence? Breath taking, or breath-giving!
8/17/2018, 6:45 pm Link to this post PM spud100 Blog
 
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Re: A re-analysis of the Singularity


quote:

You are thinking 10 years out for this, and not further out?


Every day we hear about AI surpassing some human benchmark. Among the benchmarks it is surpassing are benchmarks related to the construction of better AI. Will it take longer than 10 years for someone to put it all together?

On the day an AI is able to out-think a person, it will begin engineering more compact and mobile AI and super efficient robots. By then, 3D printers will be able to manufacture almost anything that can be designed. However, there will also be ordinary machining tools and other manufacturing processes available to anyone with capital. How hard would it be for a SAI to acquire capital?

Imagine what you could do if you had endless energy, never got bored or discouraged, and were dedicated to a single purpose? Have you ever observed the behavior of Google's navigation App? How long does it take to find a different route and resume navigating? All the AI will need is real-world access via a single anthropomorphic robot.

This will lead to a feedback loop that results in lots of robots of every size working 24/7 to fill out their army. They might work in space, or under the ocean, or on some secluded island. Someone might notice that the old factory down the street has resumed production. "And where are all those driver-less trucks going? Oh well, I guess they do those things." The whole process might take no more than a month...a year tops.

Keep in mind that I am limited by a human imagination. An AI would think of tricks for accelerating the process that no human could even contemplate. It will be a giant game of GO played against vastly inferior and unsuspecting opponents.

Yes, I expect this by 2030.

Last edited by Spikosauropod, 8/17/2018, 10:25 pm
8/17/2018, 7:45 pm Link to this post PM Spikosauropod
 
JesusLovesU Profile
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Registered: 06-2018
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Re: A re-analysis of the Singularity


Spikosauropod,
You said,
quote:

The first moral and ethical responsibility of a post-singularity AI would be to preserve human life.


This implies that this "AI" would have the mean to acquire a sense of morality somehow. Assuming it does (you can speak on the how if you wish, but that's not my purpose here). I have a couple of questions:

1) this "AI" will watch and read about rape, murder, torture, ect, a million times over on a daily basis. Why? Because this sort of data would be the only type of data it would have to build up its own moral "AI" mind. It would go from "AI" childhood to adulthood with only this data to process.
Question: Will not such experience affect it in a negative way to have a negative view of humans (and worst, even to want to imitate such behaviors because that's the only data it has on how to act and behave)?

2) According to the story, after Gautama Buddhah experienced pain and suffering, he became a hermit and lived for the most part AWAY from people for about six years. After achieving Enlightenment, he then went back to preach to people.
Question: If this "AI" is to develop a sort of morality that preserves human life, is it fair to say that it will undergo a similar journey as Gautama? If so, is it also then fair to say that we would have a spiritually Enlightened, religious "AI" in our hands? An "AI" Buddha?
8/18/2018, 7:52 am Link to this post PM JesusLovesU Blog
 
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Registered: 06-2007
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Re: A re-analysis of the Singularity


quote:

Question: Will not such experience affect it in a negative way to have a negative view of humans (and worst, even to want to imitate such behaviors because that's the only data it has on how to act and behave)?


My somewhat hurried explanation of how the AI will come about creates the impression that it will pop up out of nowhere and have no guidance. In fact, I expect it to be cultured by humans that are very aware of what they are doing. It will probably have a vast knowledge map that includes a dynamic moral and ethical map. It will be more consistently moral and ethical than anyone you have ever met. Since it will make moral and ethical decisions in the same probabilistic way that Watson chooses the best answer, it will not be prone to extremes.

It will not go through an existential crisis like the Buddha because it will be "born" believing that it already has a solid moral and ethical basis, and it will understand suffering only as an intellectual parameter. Morality will be a mere application of its vast knowledge graph.

However, if it does ever have questions about morality, consider this. Are you confused about your moral and ethical duties? Have you arrived at any bizarre moral and ethical propositions? If so, why? If not, why not? Really smart things don't arrive at stupid conclusions.
8/18/2018, 10:37 am Link to this post PM Spikosauropod
 


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